Donald Trump’s campaign and many of his supporters are trying to put the best spin possible on the numbers. I get that, but they are suggesting that the polls are rigged. They are not. They also say the size of Trump’s rallies, the enthusiasm at his campaign events, and his robust social media following are more predictive of Election Day turnout than independent presidential polling. That is not true. I am telling you this because I care about the American voter. I am standing up for…
Atheism and non-belief are growing rapidly in America, however, it is still considered one of the most religious countries in the world. Yet, saying you’re religious and being religious are two separate things and a recent study by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) suggests that many Americans greatly exaggerate how often they attend religious services. PRRI conducted two surveys, structured to be as identical as possible, using similarly sized, nationally representative samplings. 2,002 participants were asked the same questions, one group, via the phone, and another…
Within the political polling business, the greatest challenge is getting a representative sample of the people who will turn out to vote. Different demographics have different voting patterns which can be difficult to predict. In this year’s presidential race, that challenge is still in place but an even greater one is emerging: survey respondents might be lying when asked to give their opinions. Lying or confused respondents is a common challenge that social scientists have consistently had to deal with over the decades. That’s why the…