Republicans Are Replaying Their 2012 Mistakes About Polling

Donald Trump’s campaign and many of his supporters are trying to put the best spin possible on the numbers. I get that, but they are suggesting that the polls are rigged. They are not.

They also say the size of Trump’s rallies, the enthusiasm at his campaign events, and his robust social media following are more predictive of Election Day turnout than independent presidential polling. That is not true.

I am telling you this because I care about the American voter. I am standing up for them. And I learned this lesson the hard way four years ago.

In the 2012 election, Republicans believed that the polls were skewed in Obama’s favor, and did not take conservative enthusiasm into consideration. I was one of them — I believed we were going to win. I believed the polls were wrong. […]

On election night when President Obama easily won reelection, I vowed to never put myself in that position again. I wouldn’t simply listen to what I wanted to hear. I would instead take the numbers for what they were, because the polling involved specifically in presidential elections has been accurate since 1952.

By believing that the polls were wrong, I had let both myself and our viewers down. I had done them a disservice. After the election, our viewers were mad. And they had every right to be.

We shouldn’t have to learn this lesson again. At this point in the general election, Trump is struggling in the presidential polls. But making excuses for the numbers will not change them. It would be a disservice to the candidate and his supporters to say otherwise.

Read more at Medium

Photo by Gage Skidmore

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