Republicans Are Replaying Their 2012 Mistakes About Polling

Donald Trump’s campaign and many of his supporters are trying to put the best spin possible on the numbers. I get that, but they are suggesting that the polls are rigged. They are not. They also say the size of Trump’s rallies, the enthusiasm at his campaign events, and his robust social media following are more predictive of Election Day turnout than independent presidential polling. That is not true. I am telling you this because I care about the American voter. I am standing up for…

Pokémon Go’s Popularity Is Fading

Pokemon Go is starting to lose the battle for mobile mindshare, according to Axiom Capital Management. As such, investors and executives at Facebook Inc., Instagram, Tinder (Match Group Inc.), Twitter Inc., and Snapchat can breathe a sigh of relief, says Senior Analyst Victor Anthony. “Given the rapid rise in usage of the Pokémon Go app since the launch in July, investors have been concerned that this new user experience has been detracting from time spent on other mobile focused apps,” he writes. Enthusiasm about the…

Does Sean Hannity Want to Work for a President Trump?

During major inflection points in Donald J. Trump’s campaign, the advisers, family members and friends who make up his kitchen cabinet burn up their email accounts and phone lines gaming out how to get his candidacy on track (and what counsel he might go along with). But one person in the mix brings more than just his political advice. He also happens to control an hour of prime time on the Fox News Channel. That person is Sean Hannity. Mr. Hannity uses his show on…

White Christians No Longer Are Majority of Americans

The chart below reveals just how quickly the proportions of white, non-Hispanic Christians have declined across generations. Like an archaeological excavation, the chart sorts Americans by religious affiliation and race, stratified by age. It shows the decline of white Christians among each successive generation. Today, young adults ages 18 to 29 are less than half as likely to be white Christians as seniors age 65 and older. Nearly 7 in 10 American seniors (67 percent) are white Christians, compared to fewer than 3 in 10 (29 percent) young adults. Although…

Massive Study of Trump Supporters Contradicts Conventional Wisdom

“Who are Donald Trump’s supporters?” It’s a question that pundits and political analysts have been trying to answer for more than a year now, using bits of evidence of varying quality. Trump’s candidacy has been powered by explicitly nativist and nationalist themes and policies that carry a distinct aroma of prejudice, so it’s assumed that Trump voters have similar worldviews. Videos shared on Twitter of Confederate flag-sporting white guys hurling abuse at reporters and protesters tend to nurture the idea that Trump supporters are, by…

The Method Behind Julian Assange’s Attacks on Hillary Clinton

IN RECENT MONTHS, the WikiLeaks Twitter feed has started to look more like the stream of an opposition research firm working mainly to undermine Hillary Clinton than the updates of a non-partisan platform for whistleblowers. […] But it should come as no surprise to anyone who looks back at the founding principles of WikiLeaks that Assange — who has clearly stated his distaste for the idea of the former secretary of state becoming president — would make aggressive use of leaked documents to try to…

Trump Campaign Finding the Candidate Is His Own Worst Enemy

Nearly two months later, the effort to save Mr. Trump from himself has plainly failed. He has repeatedly signaled to his advisers and allies his willingness to change and adapt, but has grown only more volatile and prone to provocation since then, clashing with a Gold Star family, making comments that have been seen as inciting violence and linking his political opponents to terrorism. Advisers who once hoped a Pygmalion-like transformation would refashion a crudely effective political showman into a plausible American president now increasingly…

How Scammer Consultants Cannibalized the Tea Party Movement

As we watch the Republican Party tear itself to shreds over Donald Trump, perhaps it’s time to take note of another conservative political phenomenon that the GOP nominee has utterly eclipsed: the Tea Party. The Tea Party movement is pretty much dead now, but it didn’t die a natural death. It was murdered—and it was an inside job. In a half decade, the spontaneous uprising that shook official Washington degenerated into a form of pyramid scheme that transferred tens of millions of dollars from rural,…

Yemen, Not Syria or Iraq, Is Obama’s Worst Foreign Policy Mistake

The people most upset with President Obama on Syria are those hawks that have wanted him to do much more, and so they blame him for the actions that other states and groups have taken when he has no control over what these other actors do. Meanwhile, when the Obama administration directly and actively participates in creating one of the gravest humanitarian crises of this century, as it has in Yemen, the same people that berate him over Syria have nothing to say about that….

The Life and Death of Gopher, the Internet Before the Web

On March 18, in a conference room of the hotel, Berners-Lee presented one possible breakthrough: the World Wide Web. It was evening. Many of the 530 conference attendees had already gone to the bar or to dinner. To the curious who stayed behind, Berners-Lee explained that the Web could be used to connect all the information on the internet through hyperlinks. You could click on a word or a phrase in a document and immediately retrieve a related document, click again on a phrase in…