Every four years, Ohio voters end up speaking for more than just themselves, whether they realize it or not. While Ohio is not always or even often the single state that decides who becomes president of the United States, its consistent presence near the average national voting has cemented its reputation as one of the key states in presidential politics.
Ohio almost always votes fairly close to the national average, and the winning candidate almost always carries the state by a margin that mirrors the national winning margin. As the political world descends on Ohio next week for the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and then keeps its eyes trained on a state that will enjoy (endure?) dozens of visits from the candidates and millions upon millions of dollars in campaign spending, it’s worth taking a look at why this state has so consistently reflected the national voting. That’s the subject of my new book on my home state, The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.
Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate in 28 of the past 30 elections, dating back to 1896 (the exceptions were 1944 and 1960). That’s the best “winning percentage” of any state over that timeframe. Additionally, the state has deviated on average only about two points from the national two-party voting over the same period, making its voting more reflective of the national average than any other state.
